CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Sunday, December 3, 2006

Coastal Teaser #1 - LOW and Away

The one encouraging thing to come out of tomorrow/s near-miss coastal storm is the L/W pattern continues to cough up nor'easters. This pattern has been on-going for months and is common in +ENSO years so it/s only a matter of time before cold air and moisture coverge into a good contest storm.

DISCUSSION: Eta brings a brief three to five hour period light snow to the SNE coast soon after sunrise Monday before ending during the early afternoon. GooFuS 2M temperture prog keeps 32° isotherm well inland (implying an all liquid event), but that could be a consequence of the model/s inability to correctly resolve shallow cold air masses. Makes me nostalgic for the LFM!

The primary snowfall-limiting conditions are 1) the warm boundary layer at most stations, 2) the best dynamic forcing is offshore, and 3) an upstream kicker in a progressive UA flow regime. Snowfall amounts expected to be in the nuisance category, so there/ll be no Contest for this event.

The 20:01 UTC enhanced IR image from GOES-8 shows the cooling cloud top temperatures INVOF the nascient LOW developing S of HSE.

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