NAO - MET Office Winter Forecast '06 / '07

The UKMET Office issued their Winter Forecast yesterday.

Temperature across Europe - slightly above climo with occasional cold outbreaks. In the UK, December is expected to be mild with colder temperatures during mid and late winter.

Sounds vaguely familiar.

Precipitation across Europe - equal chances for above or below normal. In the UK, they expect normal to slightly above normal.

Sounds like they/re expecting a +NAO to dominant this winter...which is au contraire to many US forecasters who 'see' the opposite as the most likely outcome.

The Brits have been torturing the NAO index in recent years in a dogged attempt to make it confess to what it knows about the coming winter. The MET Office claims their winter NAO forecasts...which are based on May/s SST anomalies in the NW Atlantic near Newfoundland... have a 66% accuracy regarding it/s sign.



May SST Pattern - Winter Z500 Pattern


May 2006 SST Anoms

Nothing negative about the correlated 5H pattern this season.