CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Wednesday, December 6, 2006

NAO - MET Office Winter Forecast '06 / '07

The UKMET Office issued their Winter Forecast yesterday.

Temperature across Europe - slightly above climo with occasional cold outbreaks. In the UK, December is expected to be mild with colder temperatures during mid and late winter.

Sounds vaguely familiar.

Precipitation across Europe - equal chances for above or below normal. In the UK, they expect normal to slightly above normal.

Sounds like they/re expecting a +NAO to dominant this winter...which is au contraire to many US forecasters who 'see' the opposite as the most likely outcome.

The Brits have been torturing the NAO index in recent years in a dogged attempt to make it confess to what it knows about the coming winter. The MET Office claims their winter NAO forecasts...which are based on May/s SST anomalies in the NW Atlantic near Newfoundland... have a 66% accuracy regarding it/s sign.

May SST Pattern - Winter Z500 Pattern

May 2006 SST Anoms

Nothing negative about the correlated 5H pattern this season.

No comments: