QBO - November '06

Latest QBO comes in @ 10.10...hot on the heels of October/s 10.86. Top three analog years since 1948 are still 1990...1971...and 1969 based on regression and R² analysis for QBO values YTD. '90 had a neutral ENSO...'71 was cold...but '69 was warm as is '06.
1969/1970 snowfall @ RIC was 14" and near the period-of-record normal. 1957 was a good match using regresson...but the R² value didn/t make the top 10.

The winter of '69 snows were generous to interior NE stations such as BTV...ALB...BGM...BDL...and MDT but near-normal to occasionally below-normal elsewhere.

"The QBO determines the character of the early winter, leading to a colder and more stable polar vortex in December and January during the west phase of the QBO and a more disturbed and warmer Arctic during the east phase of the QBO.

The solar cycle influences the latter part of the winters when a clear difference is observed between periods of high and low solar activity. During high solar activity the winters in the west phase of the QBO tend to be disturbed and are often connected with Major Midwinter (stratospheric) Warmings." - anon

Solar activity has been anything but high for a long time...so don/t look for any dramatic height falls over the Arctic.

QBO since January '06...
-18.83
-11.24
-0.38
5.00
10.36
11.47
10.75
9.10
10.20
10.86
10.10