CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Sunday, December 3, 2006

QBO - November '06

Latest QBO comes in @ on the heels of October/s 10.86. Top three analog years since 1948 are still 1990...1971...and 1969 based on regression and R² analysis for QBO values YTD. '90 had a neutral ENSO...'71 was cold...but '69 was warm as is '06.
1969/1970 snowfall @ RIC was 14" and near the period-of-record normal. 1957 was a good match using regresson...but the R² value didn/t make the top 10.

The winter of '69 snows were generous to interior NE stations such as BTV...ALB...BGM...BDL...and MDT but near-normal to occasionally below-normal elsewhere.

"The QBO determines the character of the early winter, leading to a colder and more stable polar vortex in December and January during the west phase of the QBO and a more disturbed and warmer Arctic during the east phase of the QBO.

The solar cycle influences the latter part of the winters when a clear difference is observed between periods of high and low solar activity. During high solar activity the winters in the west phase of the QBO tend to be disturbed and are often connected with Major Midwinter (stratospheric) Warmings." - anon

Solar activity has been anything but high for a long don/t look for any dramatic height falls over the Arctic.

QBO since January '06...

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