NAO - November '06

GACK!

Near-normal NAO but still...0.440 is disappointing to those eager for a quick transition to winter weather. Not that November/s number comes as any surprise seeing how mean monthly temperatures in the NE and M-A were well above normal.

RIC +4.7
IAD +3.4
PHL +4.4
BGM +5.4
BDL +5.0
BTV +5.7
BOS +4.2
PWM +5.5
CAR +6.1

With the addition of November/s datum...top three NAO analog years for this winter ('52...'81...'02) hold fast. '94 moves up one click to 4th, '80 sinks to 6th, and '01 moves into 5th. '02...which had very good snows for most stations in NE and the M-A except ORF and RDU....also shows up in the top five SOI analog years.

CW has it this season would be cold and stormy in the E...strongly influenced by +ENSO and -NAO. So...what/s up with the LR progs continuing their depiction of high index flow across the CONUS with a strong...fast PAC jet well into Week2.

No need to panic...yet. Only five days into MET winter and there/s a whole lotta winter to go.