CONTEST STATUS - Updated: WED ... 13-DEC-17 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Snow Storm #1
Synoptiscope in VCP32

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Friday, December 8, 2006

Joe 'Big Snows' D'Aleo

The Gloucester Daily Times in Gloucester, MA published an article with some quotes from Dr. Joe D'Aleo today called... "Despite mild weather, a bear of a winter is in the forecast."

What caught my eye in this general interest story was Dr. Joe/s hefty snowfall forecast for parts of eastern Mass. Riding this winter/s moderate el Nino...he/s going 200% climo with 70-76" for the area.

Dr. Joe likens this winter/s potential to the '02 / '03 el Nino where Cape Ann picked up almost 120" (50" is average) and Boston saw 71.3". That winter ranks as the 4th best MEI analog this year but PDO E flipped W by late summer (the opposite of this year) and QBO ended its positive run in December which won/t happen this year. This analog may be illustrative as to how el Nino years can produce good snows...but it isn/t one of the better matches.

He also noted the snows from the '04 / '05 el Nino when Boston got 86.6". That winter is the 6th ranked MEI analog for '06 / '07. PDO ranks 9th and QBO 11th. Not a terrible analog...but there are better ones.

For each of his analog years...BOS almost picked up its normal yearly snowfall (43.3") in one month/s time. In '02 / '03...a big dump of 41.6" came in February...more than half coming from from the PD2 storm (23.6"). During '04 / '05...43.3" of snow came in January...22.5" over two days on the 22nd and 23rd.

So...what about '57? Near normal with 44.7"...most of it (23.9") falling in February.

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