CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SUN ... 07-DEC-14 @ 6:30 PM EST

Winter '14 / '15 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

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16th Annual 'Regular Season'
STORM #2
Synoptiscope in VCP32

STORM #1 (26/27-NOV-14):
FINAL results here

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14th Annual 'Season-total'
Forecasts here.
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Thursday, December 7, 2006

MEI - October / November '06

Latest Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) comes in @ 1.293...up 26% from 1.027 during Sept / Oct.

Klaus Wolter of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory - Physical Science Division notes this is the 5th highest of all Oct / Nov values and the highest ranked value since Apr / May '98.

Wolter expects +ENSO to remain moderate (near +1)...if not stronger (near +1.5 or higher) into early '07. His analog years are 1951-2, 1963-4, 1976-7, and 2002-3. Not sure why '86 / 87 wasn/t included since it lines up so well with the the '06 YTD observations on a regression line.

'57 is ranked 7th as an MEI analog. The '57 QBO is ranked 5th and is the only top-ranked QBO year during +ENSO. Even the '57 PDO is close...although the current index leads the historical by three months...there are intriguing similarities.


MEI - '06 (observed) and '57 (analog) YTD (Dec/Jan - Oct/Nov)

'57 snows were quite good in NE and especially so across the M-A.


Too bad analog forecasting produces such poor results.

3 comments:

Shillelagh said...

I looked up climo stats for my neck of the woods - SYR - and 57/58 looks like a bit of a reverse 89/90 winter - w/ Dec blowtorching (+6F, 40$ PORN), Jan about avg (-1F, 100% PORN) and February rockin' (-6F and 225% PORN).

It is somewhat surprising that analogs haven't proven themselves better - at least that's what the Gov't scientists claim and I have no reason to doubt them. I'd imagine that only when a dominant forcing mechanism is forecast to exist (ENSO) in a strong phase, is analogging useful. And that somehow makes sense to me as the remainder of the other global indices/mechanisms appear to be almost co-dependent on other factor(s) - most of which appear to be ill understood - or at least not very predicatble w/ any skill.

TQ said...

Shilleagh...

Analogs are old school...widely used before the dawn of NWP. I/ve never seen them used with much consistent success...especially during synoptic scale events where forecasters tended to use them to justify their 'doom and gloom' forecasts.

I agree in certain situations where there/s confidence that a planetary scale phenomenon...such as ENSO...with known effects on regional wx...analogs can be useful. When this winter enters the history books...we/ll see first hand just how well the stars were aligned.

If analogs worked...we wouldn/t need NWP.
If NWP worked...we would need meteorologists.
If meteorologists worked..we wouldn/t need Wxsage.

TQ said...

TQ wrote too quickly...
"If analogs worked...we wouldn/t need NWP.
If NWP worked...we would need meteorologists.
If meteorologists worked..we wouldn/t need Wxsage."

Second stanza should read...
If NWP worked...we wouldn/t need meteorologists.